GLOBAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN THE SIHR EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODEL WITH APPLICATION TO COVID19
Résumé
In this paper, we develop a numerical approach based on chaos expansions to analyze the sensitivity of input parameters (basic reproduction number, cure rate, hospitalization rate) on the evolution of the SIHR epidemiological model. Lagrange polynomials affords a natural framework for computing Sobol indices. Such indices give reliable information on the relative importance of each uncertain entry parameters. We use the COVID19 disease as a numerical application to illustrate the study for two different basic reproduction numbers R0. Further- more, we consider a sinusoidal and logistic infection rate and we give the Sobol indices when the parameters follow the uniform law.
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