Is fiscal policy always counter- (pro-) cyclical? The role of public debt and fiscal rules
Résumé
We investigate the reaction of fiscal policy to the business cycle in a panel of 56 developed, emerging and
developing economies over 1990–2011. While we strengthen the established finding that fiscal policy is
counter-cyclical, additional outcomes emerge from this study. We reveal a non-linear response of fiscal policy to
the business cycle, conditional upon the outstanding debt stock. Interestingly, when the public debt-to-GDP
ratio goes beyond our endogenously estimated threshold of 87%, fiscal policy turns pro-cyclical. To tackle this
effect, we explore the role of fiscal rules (FR). We unveil heterogeneous impacts among FR, as only some of them
may mitigate fiscal policy procyclicality in high-debt contexts.