Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: an exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island - Université Clermont Auvergne Access content directly
Journal Articles Volcanica Year : 2022

Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: an exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island

1 LMV - Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans
2 Department of Geography, University of Cambridge
3 INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia – Sezione di Pisa
4 OVPF - Observatoire Volcanologique du Piton de la Fournaise
5 University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences
6 Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Dipartimento della Protezione
7 Instituto Geofísico, Escuela Politécnica Nacional
8 ISTO - Institut des Sciences de la Terre d'Orléans - UMR7327
9 Magma - UMR7327
10 DG-FCUL, Departamento de Geologia, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa
11 UNITO - Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin
12 USGS Alaska Volcano Observatory
13 Department of Geography, University of Cambridge
14 GEO3BCN CSIC, Geosci Barcelona, Grp Dynam Lithosphere GDL, Luis Sole I Sabaris S-N, Barcelona 08028
15 Etat Major de Zone et de Protection Civil de l’Océan Indien, Protection civile
16 UR - Université de La Réunion
17 University at Buffalo, Department of Geology
18 IPGP (UMR_7154) - Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris
19 Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile
20 Université de Genève, Département des sciences de la Terre
21 Journal de l’île
22 Department of Geology and Environmental Science, University of Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA.
23 Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Wissenschaftpark "Albert Einstein"
24 Instituto Geofísico, Escuela Politécnica Nacional
25 LGSR - Laboratoire GéoSciences Réunion
Alessandro Tadini
Patrick Bachèlery
Valéry Cayol
Lucia Gurioli
Philippe Labazuy
Etienne Médard
Victoria Rafflin

Abstract

Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved 28 experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics compared to recent eruptions, and that it is fundamental to include well-prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.

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Volcanology
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hal-03712658 , version 1 (04-07-2022)

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Alessandro Tadini, Andrew Harris, Julie Morin, Andrea Bevilacqua, Aline Peltier, et al.. Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: an exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island. Volcanica, 2022, 5 (1), pp.105-131. ⟨10.30909/vol.05.01.105131⟩. ⟨hal-03712658⟩
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