Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Multiple Sources and Global Applications
Résumé
Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically
challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated
because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity,
meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami
Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales
with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance
knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific
levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of
time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps
or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms
of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation
mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii)
statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric
uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the
rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications,
including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of
occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.
Domaines
VolcanologieOrigine | Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte |
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