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Article Dans Une Revue Nature Climate Change Année : 2013

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

1 UF|ABE - Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
2 INRES - Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz
3 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
4 National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment
5 Department of Agronomy
6 Ecosystem Sciences
7 Plant Production Research
8 Agronomie
9 Department of Geological Sciences and W. K. Kellogg Biological Station
10 GDEC - Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales
11 CCAFS, IWMI, NASC Complex, DPS Marg
12 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
13 Institute of Soil Ecology
14 ICAS - Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds]
15 CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
16 CIFA - Centro de Investigaciòn y Formenta Agrario
17 WESS-Water and Earth System Science Competence Cluster
18 Department of Renewable Resources
19 IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna]
20 Agriculture Department
21 Department of Plant Agriculture
22 nstitute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
23 Joint Global Change Research Institute
24 Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis
25 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
26 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
27 Landscape and Water Sciences
28 Department of Agroecology
29 NCAS-Climate, Walker Institute
30 Computational and Systems Biology Department
31 FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
32 Biological Systems Engineering
33 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
34 Plant Production Systems and Earth System Science-Climate Change
35 IGSNRR - Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
36 Institute for Climate and Water
37 ARCHE - Agrosystèmes Cultivés et Herbagers
38 Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center
39 Texas A&M University System
Nadine Brisson
  • Fonction : Auteur
Patrick Bertuzzi
  • Fonction : Auteur
J. Hooker
  • Fonction : Auteur
Dominique Ripoche
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1203111

Résumé

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain(1). Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate(2). However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models(1,3) are difficult(4). Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.

Dates et versions

hal-01186886 , version 1 (25-08-2015)

Identifiants

Citer

S. Asseng, F. Ewert, C. Rosenzweig, J. W. Jones, J. L. Hatfield, et al.. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 2013, 3 (9), pp.827 - 832. ⟨10.1038/NCLIMATE1916⟩. ⟨hal-01186886⟩
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