Ricardian neutrality : A limit to the analysis of the debt sustainability of CEMAC countries
La neutralité ricardienne : Une limite à l'analyse de la viabilité de la dette des pays de la CEMAC
Résumé
The study examines the distribution of overindebtedness across macroeconomic aggregates by empirically verifying the validity or otherwise of Ricardian equivalence as a main limitation to the analysis of debt sustainability within the panel of Economic and Monetary Community countries. of Central Africa chosen for the period 2000-2023. From the ARDL approach, parameterized as an error correction model (ECM), the results indicate that the level of private investment remains low in the face of episodes of long-term debt crisis, with insignificant effects of tax policy. However, private investment constitutes a channel of transmission of overindebtedness and rejects the principle of Ricardian equivalence (PER), which favors the analysis of debt sustainability (DSA). The results estimated by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Generalized Least Squares (GLM) reveal that consumption is also a channel of transmission of over-indebtedness. However, the tax base plays an important role in this transmission and validates the PER, which tends to limit the DSA of countries in the sub-region. Overall, these results prove the existence of expectations of economic agents in the face of an increase in taxes intended to repay the loan to the extent that these agents are victims or not of the fiscal illusion according to very specific transmission channels. over-indebtedness. These results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications.
Mots clés
Équivalence ricardienne Surendettement Politique fiscale ARDL MCG. JEL Classification : B22 C33 E13 F34 Type du papier : Recherche empirique Ricardian equivalence Overindebtedness Fiscal policy ARDL MCG. Classification JEL : B22 C33 E13 F34 Paper type: Empirical Research
Équivalence ricardienne
Surendettement
Politique fiscale
ARDL
MCG. JEL Classification : B22
C33
E13
F34
Type du papier : Recherche empirique Ricardian equivalence
Overindebtedness
Fiscal policy
MCG. Classification JEL : B22
Paper type: Empirical Research
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