Does winter come? Predicting endodormancy induction in walnut trees. - Laboratoire de Physique et Physiologie Intégratives de l'Arbre Fruitier et Forestier Accéder directement au contenu
Pré-Publication, Document De Travail (Preprint/Prepublication) Année : 2021

Does winter come? Predicting endodormancy induction in walnut trees.

Résumé

The initial date for chilling accumulation (DCA) is often set arbitrarily using various rules and leading to a tremendous variability between studies and sites. To test the relevancy of different calculation rules, sequential models taking into account, or not, the negative effect of warm temperature) were optimized on 34 endodormancy release and 77 budbreak dates of walnut cv Franquette across France. The flexible DCA was more efficient than using functions that compute negative chilling accumulation at warm temperature. Most of the DCA tested provided an accurate fit to the calibration datasets for budbreak, but less for endodormancy release. Among the rules, the DORMPHOT model, integrating temperature and photoperiod control on endodormancy induction, was the most efficient (RMSEP < 10 and 8 days for endodormancy release and budburst, respectively). The projections of the best model under different climate (current and RCP scenarii) revealed a tipping point at a mean annual temperature of 13.86°C, beyond which the advance in ontogenic development during ecodormancy does not compensate the delay in endodormancy release. The relationships between climate variables and plant phenological processes would help to predict future phenological cycles on a global scale.
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Dates et versions

hal-03065757 , version 1 (14-12-2020)
hal-03065757 , version 2 (31-03-2021)
hal-03065757 , version 3 (24-11-2021)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-03065757 , version 3

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Guillaume Charrier. Does winter come? Predicting endodormancy induction in walnut trees.. 2021. ⟨hal-03065757v3⟩
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